We're likely to learn the extent of those reforms in 2021/2022 when a lot of those investigations conclude. Yet its a smart point. The Old Testament is full of instances where God, frustrated by Israel's refusal to listen and repent, forces the change he desires through other means, namely the armies of Assyria and then Babylon and finally Rome. Church state relations throughout history have been invariably complex, but there's several situations like that Otto the Great found himself in, to where he felt the need to carry out much needed Church reforms Rome was either unwilling or incapable of carrying out on their own.
I'm reminded of this today in light of the latest round of reforms Pope Francis has launched to try and clean up the financial filth that has existed for some time in Rome, and which has basically had a field day the entirety of his pontificate. In addition to these reforms, he has unveiled sweeping transparency reforms, as well as effectively abandoning the reform of the Roman Curia that gave the Secretariat of State unrivaled power in the modern Church, after said office had defended and protected a lot of corrupt individuals. Almost all of these reforms were reforms he rejected earlier, sometimes forcefully, and almost always accusing those advocating precisely these reforms as acting in bad faith. What changed?
Maybe the Pope has had a change of heart, and has seen the error of his ways. Or, more likely, he has taken the threats of the global financial community seriously. Numerous international institutions have threatened to effectively blacklist the Vatican from engaging in international banking because of their practices. Being cutoff from that banking also means being cut off from the various mechanisms of servicing debt, paying off loans, and being able to get money where its needed throughout the world with ease. As the article points out, Moneyval has made clear the time for voluntary change has passed. Rome can change.... or else.
Arguing over the soundness of this approach is besides the point. Yes, there is a lot of inherent potential for abuse in a system where the Church and Pope is bullied, often against their will, into making reforms. The time for avoiding that situation was in 2013 when Francis first ascended to the throne, and had a chance at being a real reformer. He was instead focused on being a media darling and igniting a civil war at the Synod on the Family. The media charm offensive of tickling the ears of secular people everywhere that 'this pope is different' hasn't really produced anything of long term value, and the two synods on the family were abysmal catastrophes with regard to Church unity and papal authority. Meanwhile, we lost a crucial chance to carry out much needed reforms.
These reforms will now be carried out under force. It will be a great irony if Francis ends up doing down as a reforming pope who set the Church on sound footing, doing the right thing after exhausting every single opportunity to do otherwise. Yet its an irony we should hope for nonetheless.
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